All validations results correspond to pearl version 1.

Initial Population in Year 2009

Age Distribution of Initial Population in Year 2009

The age distribution of the simulated population on ART in year 2009 is shown, modeled via a two-component mixed normal distribution (blue line) based on data from NA-ACCORD (green bars).

Figure 1a: HET Female

Figure 1b: HET Male

Figure 1c: IDU Female

Figure 1d: IDU Male

Figure 1e: MSM

CD4 Count Distribution at ART Initiation of Initial Population in Year 2009

The CD4 count distribution of the simulated population on ART in year 2009 is shown. The blue line represents the simulated CD4 count values against NA-ACCORD data (green bars). CD4 count is drawn from a normal distribution with parameters fit to a linear function of ART initiation year.

Figure 2a: HET Female

Figure 2b: HET Male

Figure 2c: IDU Female

Figure 2d: IDU Male

Figure 2e: MSM

Population Initiating ART from 2010 - 2017

Age Distribution of ART Initiators

The age distribution of the simulated population initiating ART from 2010 - 2017 is shown. The blue line represents the simulated age distribution against NA-ACCORD data (green bars). Age at ART initiation is modeled by a two-component mixed normal distribution with parameters fit to a linear function of ART initiation year.

Figure 3a: Black HET Female

Figure 3b: Black HET Male

Figure 3c: Hispanic HET Female

Figure 3d: Hispanic HET Male

Figure 3e: White HET Female

Figure 3f: White HET Male

Figure 3g: Black IDU Female

Figure 3h: Black IDU Male

Figure 3i: Hispanic IDU Female

Figure 3j: Hispanic IDU Male

Figure 3k: White IDU Female

Figure 3l: White IDU Male

Figure 3m: Black MSM

Figure 3n: Hispanic MSM

Figure 3o: White MSM

CD4 Distribution of ART Initiators

The CD4 count distribution of the simulated population initiating ART from 2010 - 2017 is shown. The blue line represents the simulated CD4 count values against NA-ACCORD data (green bars). CD4 count is drawn from a normal distribution with parameters fit to a linear function of ART initiation year.

Figure 4a: Black HET Female

Figure 4b: Black HET Male

Figure 4c: Hispanic HET Female

Figure 4e: White HET Female

Figure 4f: White HET Male

Figure 4g: Black IDU Female

Figure 4h: Black IDU Male

Figure 4i: Hispanic IDU Female

Figure 4j: Hispanic IDU Male

Figure 4k: White IDU Female

Figure 4l: White IDU Male

Figure 4m: Black MSM

Figure 4n: Hispanic MSM

Figure 3o: White MSM

Age Distribution of ART Users Disengaging from ART

The age distribution of the simulated population disengaging from ART from 2010 - 2017 is shown. The blue line represents the simulated age distribution against NA-ACCORD data (green bars). Age at disengagement from ART is an emergent property of the model.

Figure 5a: Black HET Female

Figure 5b: Black HET Male

Figure 5c: Hispanic HET Female

Figure 5d: Hispanic HET Male

Figure 5e: White HET Female

Figure 5f: White HET Male

Figure 5g: Black IDU Female

Figure 5h: Black IDU Male

Figure 5i: Hispanic IDU Female

Figure 5j: Hispanic IDU Male

Figure 5k: White IDU Female

Figure 5l: White IDU Male

Figure 5m: Black MSM

Figure 5n: Hispanic MSM

Figure 5o: White MSM

Mortality Rate of ART Users

The mortality rate of the simulated population using ART from 2010 - 2017 is shown. The blue line represents the simulated mortality rate against NA-ACCORD data (green dots). Mortality rate is an emergent property of the model.

Figure 6

Age Distribution of ART Users

The age distribution of the simulated population using ART from 2010 - 2017 is shown. The blue line represents the simulated age distribution against NA-ACCORD data (green bars). Age distribution of ART users is an emergent property of the model.

Figure 7a: Black HET Female

Figure 7b: Black HET Male

Figure 7c: Hispanic HET Female

Figure 7d: Hispanic HET Male

Figure 7e: White HET Female

Figure 7f: White HET Male

Figure 7g: Black IDU Female

Figure 7h: Black IDU Male

Figure 7i: Hispanic IDU Female

Figure 7j: Hispanic IDU Male

Figure 7k: White IDU Female

Figure 7l: White IDU Male

Figure 7m: Black MSM

Figure 7n: Hispanic MSM

Figure 7o: White MSM

Sensitivity of Multimorbidity Projects to Changes in Mortality

The relative difference of the proportion with physical multimorbidity in 2030 [outcome] comparing scenarios in which mortality (on and off ART) was decreased by 25% (down arrow scenario) and increased by 25% (up arrow scenario) to assess the influence of estimated probabilities on physical multimorbidity prevalence estimates. Relative difference when probability of mortality was decreased by 25% and increased by 25%, compared to the baseline scenario (no modification to the probability of mortality)

Figure 8

Sensitivity of Multimorbidity Projects to Changes in Comorbidity Prevalence

The relative difference of the proportion with physical multimorbidity in 2030 [outcome] comparing scenarios in which comorbidity prevalence was decreased by 25% (down arrow scenario) and increased by 25% (up arrow scenario) to assess the influence of estimated comorbidity prevalence on physical multimorbidity prevalence estimates. Relative difference when probability of the incidence of a comorbidity was decreased by 25% and increased by 25%, compared to the baseline scenario (no modification to the probability of the incidence of a comorbidity)

Figure 9